Scientific models for seismic risk assessment and resilience enhancement of road and aerodrome infrastructure in Uzbekistan

Abstract

The seismic performance of transport infrastructure must be evaluated not only through structural resistance, but also through the probability of service disruption and the ability of the network to recover after an earthquake. This study develops an integrated risk- and resilience-based methodology for road and aerodrome infrastructure in Uzbekistan. The framework combines normalized seismic hazard, local ground conditions, asset vulnerability, functional criticality, failure consequences and post-event recovery in a single decision architecture. Two principal indicators are introduced: the Integrated Seismic Risk Index (ISRI) and the Transport Infrastructure Resilience Index (TIRI). Hazard explicitly incorporates peak ground acceleration, spectral demand, site amplification, liquefaction susceptibility and permanent ground deformation; vulnerability accounts for pavement, geotechnical, structural, deterioration and drainage components. A GIS workflow links the indices with asset inventories, condition surveys, traffic or airport function, alternative routes and emergency accessibility. An eight-asset synthetic demonstration, used solely to test the logic of the method, identifies a primary runway on potentially liquefiable fill and a bridge corridor on soft alluvium as the highest-priority archetypes. In a targeted intervention sensitivity test, a 20% reduction in vulnerability combined with a 25% reduction in recovery time decreases ISRI by about 5-6% while increasing TIRI by about 6-9%. The results show that resilience-oriented measures can provide substantial functional benefits even when the change in a conventional risk score is moderate. The framework is intended for calibration with field inventories, site-specific hazard data, fragility functions and post-earthquake restoration records in Uzbekistan.